Launch forecast

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Flying style

ParagliderLaunch flow, lift, aloft build
ParamotorSurface wind, gusts, thermal bump
Wind settingsMPH wind · Fahrenheit tempEdit

Wind units

MPHMiles per hour
KPHKilometers per hour
KnotsAviation wind read
m/sMeters per second

Temperature

Celsius°C
Fahrenheit°F

Planning window

Next 24 hoursNext 5 daysAccount

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Current read

Dark

Demanding this hour because of a 119° low-level direction change combined with a 6.8 mph gust spread and a 7.2 mph surface-to-flight speed change. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Paramotor modeTap to expand

Surface 2 mph, gusts 9 mph, and climb band 10 mph for Thursday, Oct 1, 12:00 AM.

Surface
2 mph
Gust
9 mph
Climb band
10 mph

Thursday, Oct 1, 12:00 AM

Right now

Dark

Forecast confidence: Low

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Watch-outs

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
Current detailsShow
Surface flowCalm
GustinessGusty
Thermal bumpLow
Drift turn113°

Surface

2 mph

33 ft · WNW

Gust spread

7 mph

Gusts 9 mph

Thermal bump

Low

CAPE 170 J/kg / sun 0 W/m2

Climb drift

7 mph

394 ft / S

North Topsail Beach north sector municipal beachesDark Right now

Hour by hour

Next 3 hours

+9 more
12:00 AM
Dark

Demanding this hour because of a 119° low-level direction change combined with a 6.8 mph gust spread and a 7.2 mph surface-to-flight speed change. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust model range
9 mph – 9 mph
Surface wind
2 mph · WNW
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
10 mph – 10 mph
Gust speed (spread)
9 mph (+7)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
10 mph · S
Surface-to-flight direction change
119°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 119° low-level direction change combined with a 6.8 mph gust spread and a 7.2 mph surface-to-flight speed change.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
1:00 AM
Dark

Demanding this hour because of a 174° low-level direction change combined with a 5.6 mph gust spread and a 5.6 mph surface-to-flight speed change. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
9 mph – 9 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · N
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
9 mph – 9 mph
Gust speed (spread)
9 mph (+6)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
9 mph · S
Surface-to-flight direction change
174°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 174° low-level direction change combined with a 5.6 mph gust spread and a 5.6 mph surface-to-flight speed change.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
2:00 AM
Dark

Demanding this hour because of a 165° low-level direction change combined with a 4.6 mph gust spread. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
8 mph – 8 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · N
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
7 mph – 7 mph
Gust speed (spread)
8 mph (+5)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
7 mph · S
Surface-to-flight direction change
165°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 165° low-level direction change combined with a 4.6 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
Show more hours

Hour by hour

3:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 154° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · NNW
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
7 mph – 7 mph
Gust speed (spread)
5 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
7 mph · S
Surface-to-flight direction change
154°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

Wind direction changes 154° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
4:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 153° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · N
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust speed (spread)
6 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
4 mph · SSW
Surface-to-flight direction change
153°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

Wind direction changes 153° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
5:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 177° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · N
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust speed (spread)
5 mph (+1)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · S
Surface-to-flight direction change
177°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

Wind direction changes 177° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
6:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 139° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Gust model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Surface wind
5 mph · NNE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust speed (spread)
6 mph (+1)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · SSE
Surface-to-flight direction change
139°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

Wind direction changes 139° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
7:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 114° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Gust model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Surface wind
5 mph · NNE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
1 mph – 1 mph
Gust speed (spread)
6 mph (+1)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
1 mph · SE
Surface-to-flight direction change
114°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

Wind direction changes 114° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
8:00 AM
ACTIVE

Active this hour because of a 45° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Surface wind
4 mph · NNE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust speed (spread)
6 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
45°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast

What stands out

Wind direction changes 45° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
9:00 AM
ACTIVE

Active this hour because of estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown and a 32° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Gust model range
7 mph – 7 mph
Surface wind
5 mph · NNE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust speed (spread)
7 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
32°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast

What stands out

Wind direction changes 32° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
10:00 AM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of a 64° low-level direction change combined with estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Gust model range
7 mph – 7 mph
Surface wind
6 mph · NE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
3 mph – 3 mph
Gust speed (spread)
7 mph (+1)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
3 mph · ESE
Surface-to-flight direction change
64°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 64° low-level direction change combined with estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
11:00 AM
ACTIVE

Active this hour because of estimated active thermal activity with strength unknown and a 43° surface-to-flight direction change. The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer.

Low forecast confidence: review data limits and model ranges.

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
6 mph – 6 mph
Gust model range
7 mph – 7 mph
Surface wind
6 mph · ENE
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (0 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
5 mph – 5 mph
Gust speed (spread)
7 mph (+1)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
5 mph · ESE
Surface-to-flight direction change
43°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (active activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · limited-input forecast

What stands out

Wind direction changes 43° between the surface and the forecast flight layer.

Key takeaways

  • The direction change may alter drift and wind alignment between launch and the flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.

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Model notes

How this read is built

Expand+
SourcesUp to 12
MethodRobust consensus
ScoringTakeoff-focused

The forecast combines up to 12 current inputs using an outlier-resistant consensus; the exact source count can vary by hour. Dedicated gust-front and terrain-specific rotor feeds remain unavailable. Treat this as a takeoff, climb, drift, and thermal-texture read. The paramotor score weights rain, surface wind, gusts, and daytime bumpiness more than absolute wind direction. It does not know your field obstacles, runway length, or local rotor. Open-Meteo Best Match can overlap the named models, so input counts do not imply independent evidence. Missing data remains unavailable; model ranges, ambiguous directions, and hazards from a minority of inputs remain visible.