Launch forecast

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Flying style

ParagliderLaunch flow, lift, aloft build
ParamotorSurface wind, gusts, thermal bump
Wind settingsMPH wind · Fahrenheit tempEdit

Wind units

MPHMiles per hour
KPHKilometers per hour
KnotsAviation wind read
m/sMeters per second

Temperature

Celsius°C
Fahrenheit°F

Planning window

Next 24 hoursNext 5 daysAccount

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Current read

Dark

Smooth this hour because of gusts at 4.2 mph, a 2.3 mph gust spread, estimated low thermal activity with strength unknown, a 1.6 mph surface-to-flight speed change, and a 15° surface-to-flight direction change. These measurements remain within the Smooth thresholds and point to steadier powered-flight air.

Paramotor modeTap to expand

Surface 2 mph, gusts 4 mph, and climb band 4 mph for Thursday, Oct 1, 4:00 AM.

Surface
2 mph
Gust
4 mph
Climb band
4 mph

Thursday, Oct 1, 4:00 AM

Right now

Dark

Forecast confidence: Medium

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Watch-outs

  • The 1.6 mph speed change points to steadier drift through the forecast flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Review launch direction, nearby obstacles, and the next forecast cycle for site context.
Current detailsShow
Surface flowCalm
GustinessSteady
Thermal bumpLow
Drift turn29°

Surface

2 mph

33 ft · ENE

Gust spread

2 mph

Gusts 4 mph

Thermal bump

Low

CAPE 0 J/kg / sun 0 W/m2

Climb drift

2 mph

394 ft / E

Otay MesaDark Right now

Hour by hour

Next 3 hours

+9 more
4:00 AM
Dark

Smooth this hour because of gusts at 4.2 mph, a 2.3 mph gust spread, estimated low thermal activity with strength unknown, a 1.6 mph surface-to-flight speed change, and a 15° surface-to-flight direction change. These measurements remain within the Smooth thresholds and point to steadier powered-flight air.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (4 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Surface wind
2 mph · ENE
Highest gust input
4 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 5 mph
Gust speed (spread)
4 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
4 mph · E
Surface-to-flight direction change
15°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Medium · 2 forecast inputs
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

A 2.3 mph gust spread is the clearest favorable measurement in this hour.

Key takeaways

  • The 1.6 mph speed change points to steadier drift through the forecast flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Review launch direction, nearby obstacles, and the next forecast cycle for site context.
5:00 AM
Dark

Smooth this hour because of gusts at 4.7 mph, a 2.8 mph gust spread, estimated low thermal activity with strength unknown, a 1.5 mph surface-to-flight speed change, and a 16° surface-to-flight direction change. These measurements remain within the Smooth thresholds and point to steadier powered-flight air.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (5 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust model range
4 mph – 5 mph
Surface wind
2 mph · E
Highest gust input
5 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 5 mph
Gust speed (spread)
5 mph (+3)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
3 mph · E
Surface-to-flight direction change
16°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Medium · 2 forecast inputs
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

A 2.8 mph gust spread is the clearest favorable measurement in this hour.

Key takeaways

  • The 1.5 mph speed change points to steadier drift through the forecast flight layer. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Review launch direction, nearby obstacles, and the next forecast cycle for site context.
6:00 AM
Dark

Active this hour because of a 3.4 mph gust spread. This gust spread may make the air feel less steady through takeoff and landing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (6 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 3 mph
Gust model range
3 mph – 6 mph
Surface wind
2 mph · E
Highest gust input
6 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
3 mph – 4 mph
Gust speed (spread)
5 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
4 mph · E
Surface-to-flight direction change
13°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Medium · 2 forecast inputs
Daylight
Dark at this location

What stands out

The ACTIVE stage is driven by a 3.4 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may make the air feel less steady through takeoff and landing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
Show more hours

Hour by hour

7:00 AM
ACTIVE

Active this hour because of a 4.1 mph gust spread. This gust spread may make the air feel less steady through takeoff and landing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (7 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 4 mph
Gust model range
3 mph – 7 mph
Surface wind
3 mph · E
Highest gust input
7 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
4 mph – 4 mph
Gust speed (spread)
5 mph (+2)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
4 mph · E
Surface-to-flight direction change
14°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Medium · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The ACTIVE stage is driven by a 4.1 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may make the air feel less steady through takeoff and landing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Newer pilots may prefer instructor guidance or a calmer window.
8:00 AM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of a 5.6 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (9 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 5 mph
Gust model range
4 mph – 9 mph
Surface wind
3 mph · E
Highest gust input
9 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
3 mph – 4 mph
Gust speed (spread)
6 mph (+3)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
3 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
9°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 5.6 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
9:00 AM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of a 8 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (10 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 2 mph
Gust model range
4 mph – 10 mph
Surface wind
2 mph · E
Highest gust input
10 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 3 mph
Gust speed (spread)
7 mph (+5)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
9°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (low activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 8 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
10:00 AM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of a 167° low-level direction change combined with a 9.7 mph gust spread and estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (11 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
1 mph – 2 mph
Gust model range
6 mph – 11 mph
Surface wind
1 mph · W
Highest gust input
11 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
1 mph – 3 mph
Gust speed (spread)
9 mph (+7)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
2 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
167°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 167° low-level direction change combined with a 9.7 mph gust spread and estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
11:00 AM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of a 142° low-level direction change combined with a 10.1 mph gust spread and estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown. The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (13 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
1 mph – 5 mph
Gust model range
3 mph – 13 mph
Surface wind
3 mph · W
Highest gust input
13 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
0 mph – 2 mph
Gust speed (spread)
8 mph (+5)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
1 mph · ENE
Surface-to-flight direction change
142°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 142° low-level direction change combined with a 10.1 mph gust spread and estimated building thermal activity with strength unknown.

Key takeaways

  • The combined low-level change may produce changing drift and a more demanding control workload. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
12:00 PM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of gusts at 16.1 mph and a 11.6 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (16 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
2 mph – 7 mph
Gust model range
8 mph – 16 mph
Surface wind
5 mph · W
Highest gust input
16 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
2 mph – 3 mph
Gust speed (spread)
12 mph (+7)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
3 mph · WNW
Surface-to-flight direction change
21°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 11.6 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
1:00 PM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of gusts at 20.1 mph and a 14 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (20 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
3 mph – 9 mph
Gust model range
11 mph – 20 mph
Surface wind
6 mph · W
Highest gust input
20 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
4 mph – 7 mph
Gust speed (spread)
15 mph (+9)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
5 mph · WNW
Surface-to-flight direction change
15°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 14 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
2:00 PM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of gusts at 22.6 mph and a 15.6 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (23 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 11 mph
Gust model range
13 mph – 23 mph
Surface wind
7 mph · WNW
Highest gust input
23 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
6 mph – 9 mph
Gust speed (spread)
18 mph (+11)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
7 mph · WNW
Surface-to-flight direction change
7°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 15.6 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.
3:00 PM
DEMANDING

Demanding this hour because of gusts at 22.6 mph and a 15.6 mph gust spread. This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing.

Gust assessment includes the highest forecast input (23 mph).

Hour detailsShow
Surface wind model range
4 mph – 10 mph
Gust model range
14 mph – 23 mph
Surface wind
7 mph · WNW
Highest gust input
23 mph
Altitude reference
Provider terrain estimate (763 m MSL); launch elevation unverified
Flight-layer model range
8 mph – 9 mph
Gust speed (spread)
18 mph (+11)
Wind at 394 ft above reference terrain
9 mph · WNW
Surface-to-flight direction change
8°
Thermal activity
Thermals possible - strength unknown (building activity estimated)
Forecast confidence
Low · 2 forecast inputs

What stands out

The strongest forecast concern is a 15.6 mph gust spread.

Key takeaways

  • This gust spread may produce pronounced changes in airspeed and landing timing. Thermal strength is unknown because the activity is estimated.
  • Consider a calmer window, especially for newer pilots.

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Model notes

How this read is built

Expand+
SourcesUp to 12
MethodRobust consensus
ScoringTakeoff-focused

The forecast combines up to 12 current inputs using an outlier-resistant consensus; the exact source count can vary by hour. Dedicated gust-front and terrain-specific rotor feeds remain unavailable. Treat this as a takeoff, climb, drift, and thermal-texture read. The paramotor score weights rain, surface wind, gusts, and daytime bumpiness more than absolute wind direction. It does not know your field obstacles, runway length, or local rotor. Open-Meteo Best Match can overlap the named models, so input counts do not imply independent evidence. Missing data remains unavailable; model ranges, ambiguous directions, and hazards from a minority of inputs remain visible.